From question to conviction.
A disciplined sequence designed to reduce uncertainty without hiding complexity.
Step 1 of 5
Frame
Turn an uncertain decision into a testable question.
We begin with the decision, not the dataset. In a scoping workshop, we surface competing hypotheses and identify the evidence that could change the answer. We agree on success measures, constraints, and the boundaries of the inquiry before fieldwork begins. The result is a research plan that makes trade-offs in time and budget explicit.
What we do
- Run a decision-focused scoping workshop
- Build a hypothesis tree and define decision criteria
- Identify stakeholders, audiences, and evidence gaps
- Set success metrics and research priorities
- Agree on governance, plan, and budget
- Methods & tools
- Stakeholder interviews · Hypothesis trees · Evidence gap mapping · Research design
- What you receive
- Decision brief · Hypothesis tree · Research plan and budget
- Typical duration
- Typically 1–2 weeks
Step 2 of 5
Collect
Gather the right evidence, not simply the most available data.
Collection combines what people say with what they do. We design primary research around the populations that matter, while assessing secondary and alternative sources for relevance and coverage. Permissions, nondisclosure agreements, and data handling are established before sensitive information moves. Recruitment and instruments are checked so later analysis rests on a credible foundation.
What we do
- Design surveys, interview guides, and sampling plans
- Recruit experts, customers, donors, or field panels
- Gather transaction, web, geospatial, and filing data where appropriate
- Assess provenance, bias, and missingness
- Put consent, NDAs, and data governance in place
- Methods & tools
- Survey design · Panel sourcing · Expert interviews · Customer and donor interviews · Secondary and alternative data review
- What you receive
- Fieldwork summary · Source inventory · Documented dataset and data dictionary
- Typical duration
- Typically 2–5 weeks
Step 3 of 5
Analyze
Separate durable patterns from noise and convenient assumptions.
We clean and weight the evidence before asking a model to explain it. Analytical choices follow the question: segmentation for distinct needs, choice models for trade-offs, forecasting for change over time. Where data is sparse, we show how estimates borrow strength and where they remain uncertain. Scenarios translate model outputs into decision-relevant alternatives.
What we do
- Clean, link, and weight the data
- Build behavioral segments and test stability
- Model demand, price sensitivity, and adoption
- Forecast under explicit economic assumptions
- Compare scenarios against the decision criteria
- Methods & tools
- Clustering and segmentation · Conjoint / MaxDiff · Econometric models · Bayesian hierarchical models · Scenario analysis
- What you receive
- Analysis workbook · Segment profiles · Scenario model and assumptions
- Typical duration
- Typically 2–4 weeks
Step 4 of 5
Validate
Challenge the result under different scenarios and competing explanations.
A plausible model is not yet a defensible finding. We back-test where histories permit, reserve holdout evidence where feasible, and probe sensitivity to key assumptions. Independent review challenges the design, code, and interpretation. We report confidence ranges and limitations next to the conclusion, not in a footnote.
What we do
- Back-test forecasts and use holdout samples where feasible
- Run sensitivity and Monte Carlo scenarios
- Triangulate primary, secondary, and behavioral evidence
- Arrange independent senior or PhD-level peer review
- State confidence ranges and limitations plainly
- Methods & tools
- Holdout / back-testing · Sensitivity analysis · Monte Carlo simulation · Source triangulation · Independent peer review
- What you receive
- Validation memo · Sensitivity ranges · Reviewed assumptions and limitations
- Typical duration
- Typically 1–2 weeks
Step 5 of 5
Advise
Translate the analysis into decisions and a clear path forward.
We communicate findings in the language of the decision and the people responsible for it. The executive readout separates what is known, what remains uncertain, and what should happen next. Teams receive the models and definitions needed to revisit the reasoning rather than a static presentation alone. Follow-up can test implementation signals at 30, 60, and 90 days when appropriate.
What we do
- Write a board-ready decision memo and report
- Lead an executive readout and discussion
- Prioritize options and implementation dependencies
- Hand off models, definitions, and assumptions
- Agree on a 30/60/90-day follow-up plan
- Methods & tools
- Decision synthesis · Executive workshop · Model hand-off · Implementation planning
- What you receive
- Board-ready report · Executive readout · Decision memo · Model hand-off
- Typical duration
- Typically 1–2 weeks